NBU raises the key policy rate to 16.5% from 30 October 2026: what businesses in Ukraine should recalculate before year-end

The National Bank of Ukraine key policy rate has stood at 16.5% per annum since 30 October 2026. On 29 October the NBU Board raised it by 0.5 pp (Decision No. 369), and on 5 November the NBU published its Inflation Report with a new forecast: inflation will accelerate to 12.5% in 2026 and real GDP will contract by 0.4%. This is the third consecutive hike since July. Below is a short summary of the decision, what it means for loans, prices and wages in Ukraine, and six steps to take before the next meeting on 17 December.

What the NBU decided on 29 October 2026

The NBU raised the key policy rate to support the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, the sustainability of the FX market and control over inflation expectations. The regulator cited a significant increase in price pressures and a deterioration in the expectations of banks and analysts.

Sources: NBU press release of 29.10.2026, Inflation Report, October 2026 (published 05.11.2026).

Why the NBU raised the rate for the third time in a row

Inflation in recent months has risen faster than the NBU projected in July. The regulator named the following drivers:

• direct and second-round effects of higher fuel prices caused by the war in the Middle East;
• intensified russian attacks on Ukraine's warehousing and logistics infrastructure and the sea port blockade;
• an expansion of fiscal stimulus at the end of the year;
• worse inflation expectations among banks and analysts, and volatile household expectations.

The NBU estimates that the consequences of aerial attacks alone will add around 0.7 pp to annual inflation, while their negative contribution to 2026 GDP is 1.9 pp. Metallurgical and ore mining enterprises suffered the greatest losses, and performance also deteriorated in other industries, trade and agriculture. In September we covered the NBU rate hike to 16%: at that time two members of the Monetary Policy Committee allowed for one more hike in October.

What a 16.5% rate means for businesses in Ukraine

The key policy rate sets the benchmark price of hryvnia funding for banks. The NBU notes that small banks were the first to react, and over the past month large banks with a significant market share also began revising hryvnia deposit rates. Lending stayed robust: in September 2026 net hryvnia corporate loans grew by more than 32% yoy.

Six steps before the 17 December meeting

1. A 2027 budget built on the NBU forecast. Use 7.3% inflation at end-2027 and a 16.5% rate until Q2 as the base case, plus a scenario with a higher rate. Financial modelling and budgeting are handled by the group's audit firm Key Solutions.
2. Debt load. A payment schedule for loans and leases and a liquidity buffer in case funding becomes more expensive.
3. Loan and lease agreements. Floating rate, covenants, the bank's right to change terms, early repayment fees. Contract review is done by the group's law firm Legal Solutions.
4. Customer pricing. Indexation clauses, payment terms, prepayment. Communication of new prices is built by the marketing agency Marketing MIX.
5. Payroll. The NBU expects labour shortages to persist because of mobilisation and migration. Check the 2027 hiring plan against the market; recruitment is run by the group's agency Globalstaff.
6. Logistics and warehousing. Back-up routes and dispersed stock, since the NBU names attacks on warehousing infrastructure among the main price drivers.

In our experience, the recalculation takes from a few days to a few weeks depending on the number of agreements and the state of management accounting. Start before 17 December, when the NBU takes its next rate decision.