NBU raises the key policy rate to 16% from 18 September 2026: what businesses in Ukraine should recalculate for Q4

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) key policy rate is 16% per annum from 18 September 2026. On 17 September the NBU Board raised it by 0.5 pp from 15.5% (decision No. 313-rsh). For companies operating in Ukraine this is the moment to rework the Q4 and 2027 budget: some banks, mostly smaller ones, are already raising rates, and costs for electricity, logistics and wages continue to rise. Below: the decision and five calculations to complete before the next meeting on 29 October.

What the NBU decided on 17 September 2026

The NBU raised the key policy rate to 16% to keep hryvnia assets attractive, support FX market stability and bring inflation back to its 5% target. The previous hike took place in July 2026.

Source: NBU press release of 17.09.2026.

Why the NBU raised the rate

The NBU cites persistent underlying price pressure and higher medium-term inflation risks, driven by:

• more expensive fuel amid the escalation of the war in the Middle East;
• higher administrative tariffs after Russian attacks on critical infrastructure;
• rising production costs for electricity, logistics and labour;
• fast growth of average wages in July and, by NBU estimates, in August;
• elevated inflation expectations.

The NBU expects inflation to slow in 2027 and sees no significant restraining effect on lending, which is in its longest expansion. To support businesses under shelling, the NBU also adopted two packages of regulatory decisions to widen access to financing (NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy, 17.09.2026).

How the Monetary Policy Committee voted

At the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 16 September, 7 of the 10 members present supported 16%, and three favoured keeping 15.5%. The NBU published the summary of the discussion on 28 September 2026 (NBU).

• seven members believe 16% creates sufficiently tight monetary conditions and that the NBU can move to cautious easing in 2027;
• two see at least one more hike possible when the NBU updates its macro forecast in October;
• one sees room to return to rate cuts as early as the end of 2026;
• annual growth in net hryvnia loans to the corporate sector has consistently exceeded 30% in recent months;
• the response of hryvnia deposit rates to the July hike remains restrained, MPC members noted.

For the 2027 budget this gives three working scenarios: 16% unchanged, one more hike in October, and gradual cuts.

What a higher key policy rate means for business in Ukraine

The key policy rate is the benchmark for hryvnia loan and deposit pricing. After the July hike some banks, mostly smaller ones, already raised their rates (NBU).

What to recalculate for Q4 and 2027

The minimum set is five calculations. Each one is handled by a specialised company of the INNOVA group.

1. Financial model and 2027 budget. Three rate scenarios: 16%, higher and lower. Audit and financial analysis by the audit firm Key Solutions.
2. Debt burden. Loan and lease payments at a rate 1–2 pp higher, plus a liquidity buffer.
3. Loan and lease agreements. Floating rate, covenants, the bank’s right to change terms, early repayment penalties. Contract review by the law firm Legal Solutions.
4. Prices and client contracts. Indexation clauses, payment terms, prepayment. Communicating new prices and retaining clients: marketing agency Marketing MIX.
5. Payroll and hiring. Wages are rising fast, so check the 2027 hiring plan against the market. Recruitment by the group’s agency Globalstaff.

In our experience, the scope depends on the number of loan agreements and the quality of management accounting. Start before the NBU decision on 29 October.